However, while this result shows that a population of Bayesian agents interacting with chatbots will move no further forward in their beliefs, the experience of an individual agent will differ. That agent will be receiving repeated samples from the distribution p(d|h∗)p(d|h^{*}). By an analysis analogous to that given above for the p(d|true process)p(d|\text{true process}), the agent’s beliefs will become increasingly concentrated on h∗h^{*} as nn increases. Since h∗h^{*} was selected based only on the original piece of evidence d0d_{0}, this creates an illusion of confirmation without getting the agent any closer to the truth. As a result, the agent is likely to become increasingly confident in an incorrect hypotheses about the underlying process.
3月2日消息，摩根士丹利策略师认为，除非油价大幅且持续飙升，否则伊朗及中东地区冲突的爆发不太可能动摇他们对美国股市的看涨观点。Mike Wilson为首的团队在报告中写道，从历史经验来看，地缘政治风险事件并未给美国股市带来持续性的波动。他们以标普500指数在类似事件发生后数月的平均表现为证。“除非油价出现历史性的大幅上涨并持续高位，否则近期的事件不太可能改变我们对未来6至12个月美国股市的看涨预期，”他们写道。
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